“Only when the tide goes out do you see who’s been swimming naked.” Warren Buffett’s words have never been more true than in today’s supply chain chaos.
The disruptions we’ve seen over the past few years have exposed the cracks in global supply chains. From the chaos of COVID-19, which saw a 7.7% decline in global trade in 2020, to the Suez Canal blockage that halted $9.6 billion worth of goods per day in March 2021, we’ve seen firsthand just how fragile supply chains are.
Over my years in supply chain management, I’ve faced these challenges up close, especially when unexpected demand spikes stretched our capacity to the limit. Along the way, I’ve learned valuable lessons about navigating these disruptions—and I’m here to share them with you.
In this post I’ll go into the strategies that will help businesses survive disruptions and come out more agile, adaptable and future-proof.
Because in a world where uncertainty is the only certainty, resilience is not a nice-to-have—it’s a must.
Let’s get going!
Supply chains have always been fragile but never more so. In the early 1800s Napoleon’s army starved not because of bad tactics on the battlefield but because of a failure of logistics. Fast forward two centuries and the lessons are still brutal: any break in the supply chain whether from natural disaster, political unrest or pandemic can bring entire industries to their knees.
What’s often forgotten is that disruptions aren’t just things to overcome they’re opportunities. Businesses that can adapt, pivot and strengthen their supply chain strategies in times of crisis don’t just survive they thrive. Supply chain resilience isn’t just about bouncing back it’s about bouncing forward—creating systems that can withstand and even flourish in the face of uncertainty.
A resilient supply chain should be more of a network and less of a straight line. That means being flexible and having processes in place to pivot when things change unexpectedly. Zara, who are known for their agile supply chains, were able to quickly adjust production to meet the 60% increase in e-commerce sales during the pandemic while others were left with inventory they couldn’t sell.
To get there, consider modular processes that allow you to switch production between different products or locations. Cross-train your teams so if one area is hit by a disruption, others can pick up the slack. This flexibility is important for short term and medium term demand surges.
Understanding the difference between short term and medium term surges is key to managing your supply chain:
● Short term surges are sudden spikes in demand that last for a few days or weeks. These are often triggered by a specific event like a sale or holiday. For example, a Black Friday sale caused a surge in electronics over that weekend, with online sales hitting $9.8 billion in 2023.
● Medium term surges are sustained higher demand often caused by broader market trends or economic factors. An example of this would be increased demand for electric vehicles over several months due to a new government incentive and growing environmental awareness.
The key difference is the duration, cause and overall impact on your business. Short term surges require inventory and staffing adjustments, medium term surges require more strategic planning for production capacity and resource allocation.
Relying too much on one supplier or region can leave you exposed. Think of the auto industry when a semiconductor shortage in Taiwan and a factory fire in Japan combined to shut down production for major carmakers. That’s a real world example of why spreading your supply chain across multiple regions and suppliers is so important. Yes it may cost more up front but it’s like insurance you pay a bit more now to save yourself a lot of pain later.
Data should be your best friend when it comes to predicting problems. During Hurricane Harvey in 2017, companies with strong analytics capabilities were able to see the storm’s impact on their supply routes and adjust accordingly, while others were caught flat footed. By using AI and predictive analytics you can sift through mountains of data to see trends, forecast disruptions and adjust your strategy before a small issue becomes a big problem.
These analytics capabilities are most valuable when dealing with different types of demand surges. For short term surges real time data analysis can help you quickly ramp up production or redirect inventory. For medium term surges predictive analytics can help you anticipate sustained demand and make strategic decisions about capacity expansion or long term supplier-relationships.
Being lean looks great on paper but it leaves you no room for error. During the early days of the pandemic we saw empty shelves across industries from groceries to electronics as supply chains broke down under sudden demand surges. That’s why you need some buffer capacity – whether that’s extra inventory, production capacity or logistics support.
Take Unilever for example— they maintained strategic stockpiles of key ingredients and could pivot faster than competitors when demand for hygiene products skyrocketed. The key is to balance efficiency and flexibility – enough to ride out the rough spots but not so much that you’re bogged down in normal times.
If you can’t see the problem you can’t solve it. Real time visibility was a lifesaver for companies during the Ever Given incident when the container ship blocked the Suez Canal for nearly a week. Companies that had strong tracking and open communication with their suppliers could see which shipments were impacted and reroute them as needed.
Invest in technology that lets you see your entire supply chain from end to end and make sure you’re in constant communication with your partners. It’s much easier to make quick decisions if you have the full picture in front of you. We can’t predict every crisis but we can plan for the most likely scenarios. Think of it like fire drills for your supply chain. Companies that run simulations and stress tests regularly are better equipped to act when things go sideways. Build detailed contingency plans for different scenarios – natural disasters, cyber attacks etc and update them based on real world events.
The best time to learn is after a disruption. What worked? What didn’t? For example after the Fukushima earthquake in 2011 Toyota took a hard look at their supply chain vulnerabilities and made a series of changes – increased parts standardization and more inventory of critical components. Now Toyota is seen as the poster child of supply chain resilience.
Get teams to dissect what happened after every crisis – big or small – and find ways to do better next time. It’s not just about fixing what’s broken it’s about building on what worked.
Resilience and sustainability often go hand in hand. Reducing reliance on scarce resources and adopting circular economy principles can help your supply chain weather disruptions while also meeting long-term sustainability goals.
Creating a supply chain that’s ready for anything isn’t easy. It takes strategic planning, investment in the right technology, and a commitment to continuous improvement. But the payoff is huge: companies that build resilience into their supply chains can not only survive the next crisis—they can turn it into an opportunity to grow stronger. The key is to learn from every disruption, whether it’s a pandemic, a natural disaster, or a sudden spike in demand, and use those lessons to build a supply chain that’s not just reactive, but proactive and resilient.
